RUSSIAN ENERGY EXPORTS AT THE END OF 2025: SANCTIONS RESTRICTIONS, LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES AND NEW GROWTH POINTS

Abstract

The purpose of the material is to analyze the transformation of the global energy market in the context of ongoing sanctions pressure on Russia, increased geopolitical turbulence and more complex supply logistics in the period up to the end of 2025. Key challenges for the Russian fuel and energy complex are considered, including changes in the structure of oil, gas and coal export flows, the growing role of Asian markets, as well as the impact of price volatility and the energy transition to strategic decisions of companies and the state.

Methodologically, the material is based on the format of a detailed expert interview with leading Russian experts in the field of global energy, combining elements of qualitative analysis, a scenario approach and a comparison of statistical estimates based on the results of 2022-2025. The discussion is structured around blocks on the sanction’s regime, price conjuncture, infrastructural and financial constraints, as well as Russia’s changing position in the global energy architecture.

As a result, an assessment of the sustainability of the current export model of the Russian fuel and energy complex is formulated, key areas of adaptation are identified – deepening the redistribution of flows in favor of Asian and Global South countries, developing alternative transport, logistics and financial infrastructure, as well as strengthening cooperation with non-Western partners. The practical significance of the material lies in the possibility of using the findings in shaping Russia’s medium- and long-term energy policy, as well as corporate strategies in the context of continuing uncertainty in the global energy market.