EU GAS MARKET UNDER A SANCTIONS BAN ON RUSSIAN LNG AND REGULATORY RISKS TO SUPPLIES FROM THE UNITED STATES AND QATAR

The article examines the institutional, market, and infrastructure implications for the European Union gas market that arise from the simultaneous impact of two major constraints: the sanctions-driven ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) starting in 2027 and the extension of EU regulatory requirements, including the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), to external suppliers, primarily from the United States and Qatar. Based on a qualitative institutional analysis and a review of EU regulatory acts, European Commission materials, and ACER reports, it is demonstrated that the impact of these measures goes beyond a simple replacement of Russian volumes and affects supply logistics, the structure of long-term contracts, and the functioning of hub-based pricing, thereby altering market access conditions for external suppliers.
The article explores the institutional consequences of applying CSDDD requirements to companies such as QatarEnergy, Cheniere, ExxonMobil, and other exporters. These consequences include tighter legal obligations, a reconfiguration of risk allocation in long-term contracts, and the emergence of conditions in which supply security depends not on the physical availability of gas in global markets but on the regulatory compatibility of supply chains with EU requirements. The study finds that as the market share of the United States and Qatar expands within the EU, liquidity at major trading hubs declines, while price formation increasingly shifts toward longterm agreements, where pricing more often relies on external benchmarks rather than hub quotations. Taking these transmission channels into account, the article identifies several possible trajectories for the EU gas market in 2027–2030, which differ in how suppliers respond to the Union’s regulatory framework.

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