Impact of The Turkish Policy on The Countries of The Balkan Region

The authors of the article examine Turkey’s foreign policy strategies, the current features of its policy, and Ankara’s policy in the Balkans. This analysis is carried out from the angle of Russian-Turkish relations. According to the authors the actual conceptual basis of the Turkish foreign policy strategy is in the stage of yet another transformation. At the same time, the goal is to ensure the long-term interests of the country and create a reality where the Turkish Republic could occupy a strong and significant position in the new post-turbulent world. It is planned to implement this on the basis of Ahmet Davutoglu’s theory of Strategic depth in the context of “zero problems with neighbors” concept and Admiral Ramadan Cem Gyurdeniz’s Blue Homeland doctrine. Both strategies are based on the strategy of advanced defense, which implies the security of the state at distant borders. It has been established that the Afghan problem has an increasing impact on Turkey’s foreign policy, since there are already about 4 million refugees in the country, including from 300 to 400 thousand of Afghan citizens. After the seizure of power by the Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) in Afghanistan, the flow of refugees from this country is increasing. As a result, Ankara seeks to transit them to Europe, preferably through Bulgaria and the countries of the Balkan region, given that Albania and Kosovo are ready to accept Afghan refugees. As the authors noted, Turkey’s policy in the Balkans is determined by the fact that Turkey positions itself as a transport and energy hub, which is mainly confirmed by the expansion of Russian gas supplies through the Turkish Stream underwater gas pipeline. However, at the same time Ankara promotes the supply of Azerbaijani natural gas to the Balkans through the Southern Gas Corridor, which leads to the clash of Russian and Turkish interests in the region. Though such supplies are limited to Bulgaria in the amount of 1 billion m³ of gas per year. In addition, Turkey is actively using «soft power» to expand its influence in the Balkans, primarily among the Muslim population of the countries located there. But it is forced to take into account the interests of the USA and the EU in the region. Based on the analysis, the authors concluded that relations between Russia and Turkey in the Balkans may become aggravated, especially if Ankara continues the policy of «squeezing out» the Russian Federation from Serbia, significantly increases the supply of its own weapons and Azerbaijani natural gas to this region.

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