HYDROCARBON MARKET IN 2024

Abstract

Despite the increasing role of renewable energy sources, hydrocarbons will remain the key source of energy generation for decades to come. The situation is exacerbated by the high energy intensity of China’s economy, one of the world’s industrial leaders, whose indicators have declined by only 4% in more than 50 years. Thus, the mechanism of oil and gas price formation continues to be a relevant research topic. The authors draw attention to the relationship between the dynamics of demand for hydrocarbons and real GDP growth. The article pays special attention to the difference in the formation of prices in the long and short term. A significant role of inflation in the formation of long-term oil prices is noted as part of the research. Short-term price dynamics have shown significant volatility in 2024. The main geopolitical factors in the period under review were the armed conflict in the Red Sea, the Special military operation in Ukraine, the Iran-Israel conflict, as well as the political crisis in Libya. From a macroeconomic point of view, the market reacted most significantly to the state of the US and Chinese economies. Expectations of recession and the slow recovery of China’s business activity remained as the primary concern for the market. As the result, the authors draw conclusions about the role of short term price volatility on the economies of hydrocarbon exporting countries.