THE IMPACT OF THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT ON THE MIDDLE EAST OIL MARKET
https://doi.org/10.48137/26870703_2025_29_1_45
Abstract
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains one of the key factors affecting the stability of the Middle East, with potentially serious consequences for global oil markets. The escalation of the conflict after October 7, 2023, including massive missile strikes and the start of the military operation Iron Swords, led to a significant increase in oil prices. OPEC+ countries took measures to reduce oil production in response to the current situation, which helped stabilize the market, although ongoing hostilities and geopolitical tensions create new challenges. Of particular concern is the possibility of further escalation of the conflict and its impact on oil-producing countries in the region, as well as on the global oil and gas market. The article analyzes historical parallels, current policies of the main players and possible scenarios for the development of events, emphasizing the importance of coordinating international efforts to prevent a full-scale energy crisis.
About the Authors
V. D. Ostanin-Golovnya
Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vasily D. OSTANIN-GOLOVNYA, Researcher of Department of Middle and Post-Soviet East
51/21, Nakhimovsky Prospect, Moscow, 117418
A. R. Tekeeva
Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Albina R. TEKEEVA, Student
53/2, Ostozhenka St., Moscow, 119034
References
1. Makarov I., Chupilkin M., 2021. Energy Pearl Harbor: The 1973 Oil Crisis // Russia in Global Politics. № 1. DOI: 10.31278/1810-6439-2021-19-1-38-53 (In Russ.)
2. Ostanin-Golovnya V.D., 2022. The Oil Factor in Us-Saudi Relations at the Present Stage. // Geoeconomics of Energetics. No. 3 (19) P. 53–66. https://doi.org/10.48137/26870703_2022_19_3_53 (In Russ.)
3. Shumilin A. I., 2024. The Red Sea Mission of the European Union // Scientific and Analytical Bulletin of IE RAS. No. 1. pp. 17–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/vestnikieran120241724 (In Russ.)
4. Guliyev I., 2024. The Middle East conflict and a possible energy crisis // https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/blizhnevostochnyy-konflikt-ivozmozhnyy-energeticheskiy-krizis/, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Russ.)
5. Behr T., 2009. The 2008 Oil Price Shock: Competing Explanations and Policy Implications. Berlin: GPPi // Global Energy Governance Project: Policy Paper Series. // https://gppi.net/assets/Behr_2009_The_2008_Oil.pdf, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Eng.)
6. Alexander Novak held a meeting of the Russia – OPEC Energy Dialogue // http://government.ru/news/53417 /, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Russ.)
7. The address of the Israeli Foreign Minister to the Jewish communities of the whole world: A message from the press secretary of the Israeli Foreign Ministry // https://www.gov.il/ru/pages/fm-katz-open-letter-to-jewish-communities, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Russ.)
8. The press service of the Ministry of the head of the Israeli government: “We will reach the entire top of Hamas” // https://www.gov.il/ru/pages/pm-netanyahu-statement-13-7-24, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Russ.)
9. The expert predicted the price of Brent crude oil in February in the range of $85– 90 // https://iz.ru/1643602/2024-02-02/ekspert-sprognoziroval-stoimost-nefti-brentv-fevrale-v-diapazone-85-90, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Russ.)
10. 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting // https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7418.htm, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Eng.)
11. EIA: A look back at our forecast for global crude oil prices in 2024 // https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64304, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Eng.)
12. IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia // https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/MECA/Issues/2024/10/24/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-central-asia-october-2024, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Eng.)
13. Mapping the Red Sea attacks // https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2024/mapping-red-sea-shipping-attacks/, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Eng.)
14. OECD’s Inflation forecast // https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/inflationforecast.html, accessed 10.01.2025. (In Eng.)
Review
For citations:
Ostanin-Golovnya V.D., Tekeeva A.R. THE IMPACT OF THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT ON THE MIDDLE EAST OIL MARKET. Geoeconomics of Energetics. 2025;(1):45-56. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.48137/26870703_2025_29_1_45
Views:
125
Email this article 