The CIS Economies in 2025: New Trajectories of Regional Development

Economic growth across the post-Soviet space in 2025 remained uneven and fragmented, largely due to the slowdown of the Russian economy and ongoing geopolitical turbulence. The past year consolidated the key trajectories of the region’s economic development. Foreign trade (parallel imports included), cross-border remittances, government financing, and logistics development remain as the main sources of economic growth in the region. The decline in their impact is due to adaptation to new conditions and the stabilization of trade flows. Stabilization in external sector indicates that the transformation of trade and logistics flows has reached completion, and the effects of their reorientation have largely run their course. Tight monetary policy constrained domestic demand and expanded import substitution strategies within the Russian segment. Geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus reshaped the geography of foreign trade, reflecting a reorientation toward new markets and fluctuations in global energy prices. Meanwhile, deepening regional integration and a stronger collective identity in Central Asia generated new opportunities for its evolution as Eurasia’s trade and logistics hub, alongside intensified competition among external actors seeking dominance through investment and trade policy engagement. Risk factors for the region’s further development include a possible increase in sanctions pressure, continued high-tech imports restrictions, exchange rate volatility, and domestic political instability in several countries. At the same time, economic cooperation formats represented by the EAEU and the CIS and the adaptability of the region’s states economies contribute to moderately positive development trends in the medium term.

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