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Geoeconomics of Energetics

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No 4 (2025)
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EDITORIAL

CURRENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

6-27 59
Abstract

The purpose of the material is to analyze the transformation of the global energy market in the context of ongoing sanctions pressure on Russia, increased geopolitical turbulence and more complex supply logistics in the period up to the end of 2025. Key challenges for the Russian fuel and energy complex are considered, including changes in the structure of oil, gas and coal export flows, the growing role of Asian markets, as well as the impact of price volatility and the energy transition to strategic decisions of companies and the state.

Methodologically, the material is based on the format of a detailed expert interview with leading Russian experts in the field of global energy, combining elements of qualitative analysis, a scenario approach and a comparison of statistical estimates based on the results of 2022-2025. The discussion is structured around blocks on the sanction’s regime, price conjuncture, infrastructural and financial constraints, as well as Russia’s changing position in the global energy architecture.

As a result, an assessment of the sustainability of the current export model of the Russian fuel and energy complex is formulated, key areas of adaptation are identified – deepening the redistribution of flows in favor of Asian and Global South countries, developing alternative transport, logistics and financial infrastructure, as well as strengthening cooperation with non-Western partners. The practical significance of the material lies in the possibility of using the findings in shaping Russia’s medium- and long-term energy policy, as well as corporate strategies in the context of continuing uncertainty in the global energy market.

FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA AND EXTERNAL RISKS

28-51 33
Abstract

This article examines the legal and technical potential of offset agreements as a strategic tool for addressing the gasification of domestic industrial facilities under the restrictions imposed by 19 sanctions packages. The relevance of this study stems from the need to ensure energy independence and sustainable development of Russian enterprises in a dramatically changed foreign economic environment. The authors analyze the legal nature of offset agreements and their advantages in aligning the interests of the state (as a guarantor of demand) and private businesses (as investors and contractors), particularly against the backdrop of ongoing processes in the global gas market among countries producing and consuming this hydrocarbon. Particular attention is paid to the mechanism that allows for the localization of gas equipment production and infrastructure construction in exchange for long-term government contracts. It is demonstrated that this model of interaction can serve as a catalyst for import substitution, stimulate interregional cooperation, and meet projected energy demand. The paper also identifies key risks and administrative barriers hindering the widespread use of offsets and offers practical recommendations for adapting this institution to accelerate the gasification of the real economy. This material may be of interest to government officials, industrial managers, entrepreneurs, and experts in energy and public-private partnerships. The article concludes with a series of conclusions, illustrated by examples.

52-77 34
Abstract

The article analyzes electricity production dynamics in the Russian Federation for the period 2010–2024 and develops forecast models for 2025–2027. The research covers electricity production from major power plant types: thermal, nuclear, and hydroelectric facilities, as well as total national production. Over the analyzed period, total electricity production increased by 16.5%, with the highest growth rates observed at nuclear and hydroelectric plants. The study provides a comparative analysis of two methodological approaches to forecasting: seasonal SARIMA autoregression models and LSTM recurrent neural networks. The investigation revealed varying degrees of predictability of indicators depending on power plant type. Total production and thermal power plant output demonstrated the best forecasting performance, while hydroelectric production exhibited high sensitivity to natural factors and consequently lower forecast accuracy. Based on the constructed models, expected electricity production volumes for the three-year period are determined. Forecast verification was conducted using operational data from the Federal State Statistics Service for early 2025, which confirmed acceptable accuracy of the proposed models for short-term and medium-term electricity production forecasting. The results of the study can be applied in the development of energy policy and strategic planning in Russia’s energy sector.

78-101 41
Abstract

The article examines institutional barriers to the development of technological entrepreneurship in Russia’s regions under the conditions of world economic restructuring and the energy transition. Drawing on academic literature, official statistics and materials of development institutions, the study identifies major groups of barriers: regulatory and administrative restrictions, infrastructural and financial deficits, human capital, information and market constraints. Their combined impact slows the scaling of startups, reduces regional participation in international technological and energy cooperation and limits integration into projects aimed at reducing the carbon footprint and improving energy efficiency. Comparison of regions with different levels of innovation activity reveals persistent institutional traps as well as successful governance practices. The paper proposes policy directions for mitigating barriers, strengthening regional start up ecosystems and improving Russia’s competitiveness on global energy and technology markets.

ENERGY POLICY

102-116 39
Abstract

Energy as a branch of state security has traditionally been at the forefront in the Republic of Turkey. This is due to the obvious natural resource constraints. Nevertheless, different participants in the Turkish political process have different views on how and how to ensure the country’s energy security and stability. 
The Justice and Development Party of Turkey, led by President R.T. Erdogan, has been ruling for more than 20 years. In 20 years, the party and its head have been able to build a stable energy system in Turkey by diversifying energy supplies. Nevertheless, the AKP is facing increasingly serious challenges to its de facto sole authority, which opens the way to numerous hypotheses about how policy in this area may change under the new government in Turkey. 
The specific approaches of the key parliamentary parties to the energy sector are mainly contained in separate energy subsections of the programs. Their content generally correlates with the political orientations of the parties, however, given the crucial importance of energy for Turkey, each party strives to introduce certain features in its programs in order to attract voters.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS

117-130 30
Abstract

The article examines the situation in Moldova’s energy sector, which is related to the transfer of MoldovaGaz’s authority to the state-owned company EnergoCom under the pretext of fulfilling the conditions set by the European Union for financing the country’s energy sector. This decision was made possible by the significant changes that occurred in the European Union’s gas market since the start of the special military operation, reducing the share of Russian Gazprom to a minimum. By breaking off relations with Gazprom, the Moldovan authorities are acting against the country’s economic interests, as the purchase prices for gas on European stock markets significantly exceed the cost of direct supplies of natural gas from Gazprom. The widely publicized campaign in Moldova to develop green energy will not be able to compensate for the losses incurred due to the break in relations with Russia. The same applies to the electricity sector, as Chisinau has refused to purchase cheap electricity from MoldGRES, located in the Transnistrian region.
The forced integration into the European Union’s energy market, which the proEuropean Moldovan authorities are striving for, in practice means deindustrialization and a growing need for EU subsidies, which will eventually lead to an unmanageable gas debt.
The article analyzes the draft Energy Development Strategy of the Republic of Moldova until 2050, presented by the Ministry of Energy of Moldova on September 12, 2025. The draft highlights the weaknesses of Moldova’s energy sector, including its continued dependence on imported energy resources, outdated infrastructure, and geopolitical instability in the region. 

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS

131-159 33
Abstract

In the article, the author analyzes how Russia in 2020–2025 will transform economic relations with the BRICS countries against the backdrop of increasing sanctions, escalating conflict with the West and expanding the association to the BRICS+ format, which is turning into one of the key poles of the emerging multipolar world order. The author relies on a structural analysis of the dynamics of Russia’s trade turnover with the founders and new BRICS members, evaluates sectoral and geographical diversification, and applies an institutional analysis of energy and financial agreements to link quantitative trade trends with qualitative geopolitical shifts. The study shows that BRICS is turning from a peripheral area of cooperation into a central channel for Russia’s foreign economic reorientation, providing replacement for a significant part of Western imports, deepening energy partnership (oil, gas, nuclear and renewable energy) and stimulating the growth of settlements in national currencies, primarily in conjunction with China and India.

The analysis of relations with Brazil and South Africa reveals the expansion of niche but strategically significant cooperation.: Russia is strengthening its position as a key supplier of mineral fertilizers, energy resources, and metal products, while BRICS partners are strengthening supplies of food, agricultural raw materials, and mining products, which increases the sustainability of food and commodity chains. The work shows that the new BRICS+ members (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and others) are forming additional footholds for Russia in energy, logistics, and financial calculations, strengthening the bloc’s control over key transport corridors, and creating a foundation for diversifying export flows beyond the traditional Chinese and Indian vectors.

The author emphasizes the asymmetry of the new model: Russia is increasing its dependence on China as a key market, lender and supplier of high-tech equipment, maintains a technological gap with the developed West and faces ideological and institutional contradictions between the participants.

The paper concludes that BRICS creates a stable but technologically limited integration configuration for Russia, which serves as a “safety cushion” in trade and energy and at the same time requires the diversification of partnerships within the expanded BRICS+ and institutional deepening for long-term sustainability.

THEORY OF THE WORLD ECONOMY AND WORLD ECONOMIC RELATIONS

160-178 33
Abstract

The study presents a systematization of modern theoretical approaches to the management of holding structures in the jewelry industry. Based on the dual nature of the category of ownership as a real asset and legal law, the definition of a holding company is given, and the current legal basis for the functioning of such structures in Russian economic practice is summarized, taking into account recent changes in corporate legislation. The paper shows the historical dynamics of the development of holdings in the global context, determined by the stages of industrial revolutions and the peculiarities of national economic models. The main content of the work is devoted to the detailed disclosure of five key management approaches: operational (centralized), strategic, financial (investment), institutional and digital. Each approach is analyzed in  terms of its conceptual foundations, practical implementation, and specific application in the jewelry industry. Special attention is paid to the impact of digitalization and technological transformation on the evolution of management models, as well as the role of holdings in building sustainable and transparent value chains. The research is based on an analysis of the practices of leading global corporations such as LVMH, Richemont and Signet Jewelers. The results of the analysis make it possible to identify contradictions and formulate directions for improving the management systems of holdings, taking into account industry specifics, the requirements of global competition and the challenges of the modern digital economy.



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ISSN 2687-0703 (Print)