Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan Agreement on the Druzhba Field and Its Impact on the Geoeconomics of the Caspian Sea

On January 21, 2021, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the Government of Turkmenistan and the Government of the Republic of Azerbaijan on joint exploration and development of the hydrocarbon resources of the Dostlug (Druzhba) discovery in the Caspian Sea. This event caused a wide response, both in the political and expert circles of the Caspian countries, and among non-regional actors, which makes it necessary to assess the impact of the agreements on the geopolitics and geo-economics of the Caspian region. The author studies the history of relations between Baku and Ashgabat around the issue of ownership of the disputed Serdar field. The paper analyzes the assessments that were given to this event both inside and outside the Caspian region, and examines the approaches of Western countries, primarily the United States, whose companies have occupied leading roles in Caspian energy projects since the 1990s.

The study allowed us to conclude that both the parties to the agreement and the non-regional countries with geopolitical and geo-economic interests in the Caspian Region perceived the termination of the border dispute between Baku and Ashgabat in the Caspian Sea basin as a necessary condition for preparing for the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline and connecting the market of Turkmen hydrocarbon products with Europe. At the same time, taking into account that the construction of new pipelines in the Caspian Sea depends on a significant number of factors, both economic and non-economic, the author highlights other areas of possible impact of the Turkmen-Azerbaijani Memorandum of Understanding on the geo-economic and geopolitics situation in the Caspian region. The article also suggests measures that will allow Russia to maintain its influence in the Caspian economic growth and regional cooperation under the current conditions.

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