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Geoeconomics of Energetics

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No 1 (2021)
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GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS

6-13 80
Abstract

The role of oil ang gas sector in the Russian economy remains significant despite the growth of other sectors. Thus, monitoring the price environment remains a priority task.

The article shows the reduction of the OPEC’s role in influencing world energy prices. The author also studies the mechanisms of for hydrocarbons price formation in the world markets and factors influencing its change, from the point of view of maintaining the budgetary balance in key oil exporting countries, including the Russian Federation. Over the past year, the situation has undergone significant changes caused by the pandemic of the new coronavirus COVID-19. The restrictions introduced at the beginning of the year by a number of countries significantly reduced the demand for hydrocarbons. The largest cuts occurred in China, one of the largest consumers of oil and petroleum products. At the same time, OPEC+ negotiations in March failed. One of the reasons for the controversy was the socalled «free rider effect». The shale oil producers from the United States were the «free riders» in this particular case as they do not participate in the OPEC agreement, and therefore freely use the reduction in production in other countries for expanding their own market. The combined influence of these two factors led to an unprecedented shock in the oil market.

The article also examines the role of the fiscal rule in reducing the dependence of the main Russian macroeconomic indicators on world energy prices.

43-66 94
Abstract

Turkmenistan’s foreign economic policy is based on the principles of neutrality in relation to any integration processes and bilateral cooperation. At the same time, the results of the last decade of Turkmenistan’s presence in foreign markets are limited to export supplies of energy resources (gas and oil). The Republic’s single-product exports are supported by growing financial dependence on the main gas importer, China, which significantly affects the level of economic dependence on one partner. The low level of diversification of Turkmenistan’s foreign economic cooperation is becoming a major factor for the growing instability of the national economic system and contradicts the basic principles of the Turkmen strategy of foreign policy neutrality. These contradictions determine the relevance of the study, which aims at a comprehensive assessment of the results of Turkmenistan’s economic policy and the potential for the development of Russian-Turkmen economic cooperation.

Cooperation with Russia remains the most promising direction for the development of foreign economic activity for Turkmenistan. In the current conditions of fierce competition in the regional gas and oil markets, the supply of the main export product – gas-to Russian partners (Gazprom PJSC) makes it possible to receive export revenue to the Republic’s budget, solve the problem of the growing deficit of state financial resources and support social programs.

GLOBAL TRANSPORT CORRIDORS

24-42 81
Abstract

International transport transit is a sector of the economy that is very sensitive to geopolitical, economic and technological changes taking place in the world and in individual countries. The article examines the development of transit in the context of socialist economic integration (SEI) and Eurasian integration (EAI). The transit problems of the Soviet period were mainly associated with the bipolar world order, the activities of the CMEA and the Warsaw Pact, and the establishment of pan-European cooperation. The collapse of the USSR and the division of the post-Soviet countries according to integration priorities greatly complicated the transit situation. For Russia in the 1990s and 2000s in the foreground was the creation of alternative communications that would reduce the risks of Russian exports of fuel and raw materials from the strong transit dependence that had developed in the socialist past. At the same time, Russia developed transit cooperation with the EAEU countries as an important condition for deepening the EAI and increasing the export of transport services. In the structure of the latter, an increasing share is occupied by the service of transcontinental transit traffic. Their dynamic growth reflected both the increased interest of China and the EU in transcontinental routes of mutual trade and the coordinated transport policies of the EAEU countries.

ECOLOGY AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES

67-87 98
Abstract

International oil and gas companies are increasingly becoming active participants in the renewable energy market (RES) as part of the implementation of the energy transition strategy. Basically, companies pursue the goal of diversifying their activities and increasing sustainability both in the short and long term in the context of the changing environment in the global energy market. Russian oil and gas companies do not yet set themselves the task of actively developing renewable energy sources as a separate line of business. The renewable energy projects in which they participate are mainly aimed at meeting the needs for electricity in the framework of their core activities. At the same time, oil and gas companies could position themselves not only as consumers of «green» energy, but also as active market participants in the early stages of its development. The authors investigated the directions of «green» investments of extractive companies. Despite realizing the seriousness of the climate agenda, companies invest only 3–5% of the budget in clean technologies. The experience of foreign companies testifies to the use of renewable energy sources exclusively for their own energy consumption needs at facilities remote from centralized supply systems. At the same time, it was determined that renewable energy projects, depending on the size, pay off in 10–15 years. In addition, hybrid mechanisms are gaining popularity, combining elements of renewable energy sources and traditional diesel generation. Technologies combining solar/wind power plants and storage capacities are already being tested. Development in the field of renewable energy allows to reduce their cost, which ultimately affects the economies of scale in the dissemination of clean and affordable energy.

FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA AND EXTERNAL RISKS

88-99 84
Abstract

It is still difficult to accurately assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the state of global energy in the long term. However, it is already possible to assume how the vector of development of individual energy industries including the nuclear branch will shift. Nuclear power sector was less impacted by the current crisis than fossil fuel-based power industries. However, nuclear energy will face new challenges and threats in future.

The cost of nuclear fuel has risen sharply during the pandemic, which may both arouse investor interest and lead to an overproduction of fuel in the medium term.

The capacities of solar and wind installations, which have become widespread in recent years, are not subject to reallocation. Therefore, other power plants have to «maneuver» in the network, adjusting for the constantly changing volume of energy generated during the day. The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to accelerate the process of growth of renewable industries with variable generation in the energy system, so the issue of «maneuverability» of power plants will become even more urgent. NPPs are not adapted to constantly follow the rapidly changing load in the network, therefore, the process of abandoning the peaceful atom in a number of countries is likely to accelerate.

Delays in the construction of nuclear reactors due to anti-coronavirus restrictions may significantly affect the growth of NPP capital costs. As a consequence, the cost of nuclear energy will rise.

During the pandemic, emergency services have been overburdened, which may prompt governments to increase spending on the safety of nuclear installations. However, positive changes are also possible – a reduction in investment in the hydrocarbon industry may in the long-term lead to an increase in prices for fossil fuels, which will revive interest in nuclear energy. In addition, a number of countries may consider diversifying their energy balance through nuclear energy, including small modular reactors and «pure» hydrogen produced at nuclear facilities.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS

100-113 70
Abstract

The modern world is subject to constant transformations that affect countries and require some adaptation of the economy, ruling elites and the population to new realities. The article considers trade, investment and energy factors influencing the decision of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to join the Eurasian Economic Union. The obtained analysis shows that at the moment the desire of the Republic of Tajikistan to join the EAEU is not visible, even as an observer, unlike Uzbekistan. At the same time, at present there is no real alternative for the Republic of Tajikistan. From the author's point of view, it is preferable to consider the prospects of cooperation and possible accession of the republics to the EAEU, comprehensive, studying the possibilities and desires of the countries themselves, and the importance of such accession for the member states of the Union. Despite the relatively low trade turnover of the EAEU with the countries under consideration, investment and energy factors could become significant arguments for expanding the EAEU. An analysis of the modern economic and political field of Uzbekistan shows the reform of its priorities. But Uzbekistan's fairly strong and effective trade and economic bilateral relations with all countries, including the CIS countries, give reason to believe that observer status in the Union will not soon turn into the status of a full member, in particular, the Uzbek expert community adheres to the country's priority accession to the WTO.

114-135 97
Abstract

The article examines the state of the energy sector in Afghanistan, as well as its infrastructural and future transit potential. The researcher draws attention to the topical issues of the internal political development of the Islamic republic, where, until 2020, there existed a dual power. Because of this, the country's socio-economic development is complicated, including in the energy sector. The author concludes that Afghanistan is an area of collision of geopolitical and geoeconomic interests of the leading world powers (Great Britain and the United States) on the one hand and regional powers (Pakistan, Iran and India and the countries of Central Asia (Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) on the other. In the medium and long term, the Islamic republic will not be able to solve the problems with internal and external (international) security due to the strong influence of the Islamist Taliban movement in the provinces.

Nevertheless, the leadership of Afghanistan, represented by the incumbent President Ashraf Ghani, is making attempts to improve social and economic life and reduce energy dependence in the Republic. The main focus within the country in the energy sector is Kabul's construction of hydroelectric power plants and the development of a network of power transmission lines (power transmission lines), since the country is mostly mountainous. However, there is a constant series of Taliban attacks even on power lines, which leaves some areas without electricity for several days. All this does not contribute to the socio-economic development of the population of the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, the Turkmen side is planning to build the Afghan section of the TAPI gas pipeline this year. Despite significant security problems, Afghanistan, located at the crossroads of transport communications between the Middle East, Central, South Asia and China, possesses great transit potential. This is facilitated, in particular, by the participation of the Islamic Republic in the Lapis-Lazuli Transit project. The author notes that Kabul seeks to develop trade and economic relations not only with neighboring countries in the region, as well as Azerbaijan and Turkey (along the Lapis Lazuli Corridor), but also with Russia and China in terms of security and the establishment of a process of national reconciliation between the official authorities and the Taliban movement.

 

ENERGY MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE

136-156 68
Abstract

The economic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which occupies a leading position in Central Asia in many respects, is extremely important for regional stability and progress. The article analyzes the current state of the fuel and energy sector in Uzbekistan, the main trends and prospects for its development.

The article considers the features of the genesis and structure of the country's power elites that developed under the second President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. In recent years, the political elite of Uzbekistan has transformed, becoming more open and accepting a certain number of representatives of the younger generation of officials.

Separately, the main problems of the development of energy and hydrocarbon production in Uzbekistan, which affect the slowdown in the country's economic development and the growth of social tension, are analyzed.

The impact of cooperation between Tashkent and Moscow on the current processes in the oil and gas and energy sectors is assessed due to the fact that Russian energy and engineering campaigns occupy a special place among the key investors in Uzbekistan, which contributes to the mitigation and resolution of problems in the development of the fuel and energy sector. The ongoing transformation of the economic model of the republic's development, against the background of the increasingly complex global geo-economic and geopolitical situation, requires the Uzbek authorities to implement energy projects and modernize economic sectors, make effective decisions and deepen international economic partnerships.

GEOPOLITICS AND ENERGY SECURITY

157-174 70
Abstract

The main subject of the article is the energy complexes of Azerbaijan and Turkey at the current moment. As shown by the author, the energy complexes of these two countries are becoming more and more interconnected. To a certain extent, we can talk about their convergence, in which Azerbaijan plays the role of a resource base, and Turkey – a transport and logistics hub.

We can also say that Turkey depends on Azerbaijan to a certain extent. In particular, the Azerbaijani state-owned company SOCAR has contracts for the supply of aviation fuel to major Turkish airports, and also actually controls oil refining in Turkey. This creates opportunities for Azerbaijan's influence on the Turkish economy, and in the future – on internal politics.

Another problem is the limited Azerbaijani resource base combined with the global challenges of Azerbaijani-Turkish transport and logistics projects. The article discusses possible ways to solve this problem. In particular, the possibility of settling disputes with Turkmenistan in the Caspian Sea and replenishing the resource deficit at the expense of the Mediterranean shelf.

In conclusion, the author considers the issues of competition between the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance and Russian energy companies.



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ISSN 2687-0703 (Print)