EDITORIAL
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
The article considers a new stage in the development of the geopolitical struggle for the energy resources of the Caspian region in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. European countries, in their desire to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas supplies, started looking for new suppliers and stepped up diplomatic work in the countries of the Caspian basin, hoping that supplies from the region could reduce dependence on Russian exports. The passive approach of the European countries in the matter of investments in extractive and transporting energy projects, the lack of readiness to abandon political principles in relation to Turkmenistan and Iran does not allow Brussels to expect that the Caspian Sea at the present stage could become an alternative to Russia in terms of natural gas supplies.
The article presents a comprehensive retrospective analysis of global energy sector development. The author pays special attention to technological and geographical aspects of the current and previous stages of development. The article studies the most probable vectors of global and local fuel and energy sector development, including potential of traditional and innovative technologies, as well as role of different energy sources and ways of their utilization. The study is based on available statistical data and with due consideration of the other researchers’ insights. The authors endeavor not only to consider specific indicators of energy sector development, but to contemplate alternatives which would take into account mutual effects and reflect actual mechanisms of decision-making by economic agents. The authors offer a prognosis of the most significant scenarios for Russia and develop optimal economic measures for the long-term strengthening of international competitiveness.
GLOBAL TRANSPORT CORRIDORS
The International North – South multimodal Transport Corridor (INSTC) ensures the delivery of goods from Russia to Asian and African countries without entering the ports of hostile states. The importance of this corridor is significantly increasing in the context of the unprecedented sanctions war of the West against Russia and attempts to use methods of a transport blockade. The North – South Corridor includes four types of transport links: by rail, road, water and pipeline. The article considers the technical and economic characteristics of the water and railway type of cargo transportation. The author analyzes the potential of Russian ports on the Caspian Sea (in Astrakhan, in Makhachkala and the port of Olya), as well as data on Iranian port facilities. The article considers the problems of two variants of railway communication functioning: Western (through the territory of Azerbaijan and Iran) and Eastern (through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran). The author, relying on the research of scientists of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, draws attention to the environmental vulnerability of the Caspian region, which must be taken into account when increasing the intensity of the use of sea routes of the North–South corridor. In the current extreme conditions, analysis should be focused on helping to achieve specific results, therefore, the author draws attention to a number of political issues in the article. Nowadays the exceptional influence of politics on the economy makes scientists aware of the possibility that opponents may disrupt the functioning of the International North–South multimodal Transport Corridor.
The features of the transport and logistics development of the South Caucasus in the context of the formation of international transport corridors (ITC) North-South and East-West are considered. The transit potential of the South Caucasus is identified with the identification of the main political and economic obstacles to its implementation. The main indicators of the transport systems of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan are shown. In particular, the influence of regional conflicts on the transport development of the region is determined. Scenarios for unblocking transport communications in the region after the war in Artsakh in the fall of 2020 are studied. The risks of forming an extraterritorial corridor through the south of Armenia are analyzed. It is established that the formation of an extraterritorial corridor to establish a land transport link between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic pursues mainly geopolitical rather than economic goals. The risks and threats to the security of Armenia, which may arise as a result of the launch of land communications along the Kars – Igdir – Nakhichevan – Meghri – Horadiz – Baku route, are identified. The most optimal ways of diversifying the Armenian transport system are identified. The reasons for the lack of progress in the issues of unblocking transport links in the South Caucasus are studied.
ENERGY PROJECTS
The author pays attention to the internal political crisis in Pakistan, which ended with no confidence vote to the Prime Minister I. Khan in April 2022. The new Prime Minister Sh. Sharif intends to lead the Islamic Republic out of a long economic and energy crisis. The researcher notes that internal political tension in the Islamic Republic has not been overcome. Former Prime Minister I. Khan has a large number of supporters of his Movement for Justice (PTI) party and is well positioned to regain power in new elections, with additional support in regional parliaments in Punjab and Karachi (Sindh). The tensions in socio-political sphere are expected to last until the next national elections. The author draws attention to the fact that the success of the currently ruling Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) party will directly depend on the speedy crisis relief with the help of loans from the International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
The economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have a significant impact on Pakistan’s energy sector. Lack of energy resources, disruption of LNG contracts from European companies in the autumn-winter 2021/2022 season, absence of upgraded infrastructure (in some cases any infrastructure at all) from the south to the densely populated northern provinces (mainly Punjab, and partly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) lead to power outages, which does not contribute to the economic development of the population. Overcoming the economic crisis will be supported by the construction of the Pakistan Stream gas pipeline, which will bring the Islamic Republic to a qualitatively new level of energy consumption. The author notes that in order to meet the energy needs of a large Asian country, it is also necessary to implement the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, the former Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. In terms of its realization, it is necessary to solve the problem with the security of the province of Balochistan.
Currently the final negotiations between Pakistan and Russia on the implementation of Pakistan Stream Project are underway.russia and Iran have also signed a memorandum on gas supplies to Pakistan and Oman. Nowadays due to high LNG prices and limited market supply, Islamabad has been forced to switch to diesel fuel to generate electricity at Thermal Power Plants (TPPs). Thus, the author concludes that Pakistan may count on Russia, Iran and China for stable natural gas supplies in the form of LNG or, in the medium term, through the main gas pipeline at an affordable price, taking into account the phased implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (for example, the joint construction of hydroelectric power plants). Whereas the United States and the Persian Gulf monarchies are not fully interested in the socio-economic development of the Islamic Republic, but only in maintenance of the economic status quo.
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS
The article examines the features of economic development of the Arab countries of the Gulf in the context of integration processes of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) over the past 40 years.
The authors analyzed the current literature on trends and directions of the economic environment development in the Gulf countries. The article also studies the stages of integration, including a free trade zone, a customs union and a single market. The fundamental macroeconomic prerequisites for the creation of a monetary union on the territory of the GCC are also part of the research.
The authors outline the importance and prospects for the functioning of the GCC unified energy grid, which increases the reliability of the energy system of all participating countries. As a result, the costs of building additional power plants and providing reserve capacities are also reduced.
The article addresses issues of fundamental differences in trade and foreign policy at both the national and integration levels. The authors identify the fundamental aspects of the disagreements and conduct a comparative analysis at the level of the GCC. Particular attention is paid to the economic consequences of the Qatar trade embargo in 2017–2021.
The authors consider relevance and prospects of the development of the GCC in the current geoeconomic and geopolitical conditions.
The article discusses the issues of oil exploration and production in the Republic of Georgia. As it is known, hypotheses about the presence of large oil and gas reserves on the territory of Georgia were put by some scientists back in the nineteenth century.
However, the work carried out in the twentieth century led to the discovery of small-scale industrial volumes of oil. The author examines the history of oil production in post-Soviet Georgia. In his opinion, the actualization of the issue of oil exploration and production was the result of the aspirations of the Georgian leadership to achieve energy independence from key players in this market. The history of Frontera Eastern Georgia, established by agreement between the American corporation Frontera Resources Corporation and JSC Gruzneft, is considered in detail.
The article highlights the activities of numerous Indian, Israeli, Chinese, Hong Kong and Singapore oil companies in a separate block. It is noted that all these countries are states that are experiencing a shortage in oil production was the result of aspirations and petroleum products, and they are looking for a resource base around the world.
The article also analyzes Georgia’s efforts to develop the oil and gas shelf of the Black Sea. This analysis is carried out in the future from the first attempts to explore this shelf in the mid-late 1990s to the conclusion of new contracts in 2020.
In conclusion, a forecast of the possible development of the situation around oil production in Georgia is given.
FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA AND EXTERNAL RISKS
The article analyzes the situation with energy intensity in Russia, calculation methods and factors affecting its level, dynamics in the period 2000-2021. It is shown that the most reliable picture of the dynamics of the energy intensity of the economy is revealed when GDP is calculated in constant prices in rubles, in the same cases when Russia’s GDP is calculated in dollars by PPP, the level of energy intensity is markedly underestimated.
Under the influence of multiple growth of oil and gas revenues, which led to high growth rates of investments in fixed assets and GDP, energy intensity in 2000-2007. In Russia, it decreased by 5.1 % annually, outstripping the most developed countries by 1.5 times in this indicator. In subsequent years (2008-2021), due to the low rates of investment activity, GDP and growth in the volume of energy consumed, the dynamics of energy intensity stagnated, while in the world and in most developed countries, on the contrary, the acceleration of the rate of reduction of energy intensity occurred during this period.
The article examines in detail the main factors that influenced the dynamics of energy intensity in Russia, and for such a factor as investments in fixed assets, the coefficients of dependence of energy intensity on their rates are revealed, which can be used when planning energy intensity indicators for the future.
Based on a detailed consideration of the factors affecting the dynamics of energy intensity, the author suggests the main directions for reducing energy intensity in Russia. These included: intensification of investment activity, acceleration of GDP growth, restructuring of the structure of the economy towards industries with high added value, refusal to increase domestic energy prices to the level of world prices for them.