EDITORIAL
FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA AND EXTERNAL RISKS
The article examines the state of the Russian gas industry in the period from the beginning of sanctions (2022) to the end of 2023. The author assesses the period of adaptation to the new market conditions. It is the author’s opinion that the risks in the gas sector last year turned out to be more extensive than in the oil sector. The reduction in gas production is primarily due to the reduction in natural gas purchases by European consumers. Exports to non-CIS countries have decreased over the past two years. Over the past two years, there has been a decline in gas production levels, with the most noticeable drawdowns being seen at Gazprom. This is not only due to the decrease in exports, but also due to the increase in production by other companies (NOVATEK and Rosneft).
Russia currently supplies gas via pipelines to Europe, Turkey and the People’s Republic of China. In the European direction, supplies are made through the Ukrainian GTS and the Turkish Stream pipeline. Gas supplies to China have the greatest potential; during the period under review, they increased one and a half times. There is a planned increase in supplies through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline.
The author also describes the complicated dynamics in the domestic gas market. The program of social gasification, which continues to develop, is mentioned separately.
According to the author, the government will have to develop measures to support the industry in order to fulfill its social obligations and develop new projects that will ensure diversification of sales markets and substitution of partners from unfriendly jurisdictions in the coming years.
The article examines the state of Russia’s oil industry over the period 2022 and 2023 as geopolitical changes shifted from one year to the next. The author notes that despite the sanctions pressure, Russia has successfully managed to reorient its oil markets towards Asia. Exports to India are the most actively developing; the ease of transition was due, among other things, to the availability of ready-made business in India: new refineries were built on the coast, for which oil was purchased from the nearest markets. In 2022-2023, India became the largest market for Russian oil delivered by sea. As for supplies via oil pipelines, China remains the largest consumer. Under these conditions, Russian companies have an opportunity use the competition between the countries to their advantage by reducing the discount on their products.
The USA used to be the biggest buyer of Russian oil products until 2022, currently this role is taken by Turkiye. The state buys large volumes from Russia and then resells similar volumes to the EU countries. Despite the statements about different origin of oil products, formally the volumes of purchases and sales coincide.
A significant role in the supply of Russian resources by sea is played by the shadow fleet, which began operating after the introduction of the «price ceiling». The fleet’s tankers have been bought off the world market by various companies that are registered offshore.
There has been no reduction in production and exports due to technical problems caused by sanctions on the supply of equipment and technologies to Russia, or due to the withdrawal of Western oil service companies. Domestic structures quickly managed to establish a system of parallel imports, as well as to find alternative equipment in China.
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
2023 was a very important year for both global and Russian energy markets. In addition to the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic and, consequently, the reduction of business activity in the world’s largest economies, the oil and gas market continued to undergo a significant transformation, caused, among other things, by the introduction of restrictive measures aimed at the Russian hydrocarbon industry. The article examines the most significant events that influenced the price fluctuations in the oil and gas markets. The authors study the measures taken by European countries to avoid the energy crisis and assess their effectiveness. The study also considers the prospects of Russia’s interaction with Asian countries in the sphere of oil and gas supplies. Special attention is paid to the interaction with China and India.
The paper analyzes the main stages of the Russian energy sector development in the context of the influence of external factors. The author considers the role of the new export pipelines construction in strengthening the country’s position in global energy markets. The article provides an assessment of the dependence of Russian energy sector on foreign capital and technology. The author provides some practical recommendations for the development of the Russian energy sector in the context of Western sanctions and the transition to a low-carbon economy.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
The article characterizes the current stage of Russian-Mongolian cooperation, reveals the factors and conditions that determined the new stage of bilateral interaction after 2010. The development of cooperation is conditioned by the needs of regional interaction and the need to solve the problems of internal socio-economic process of Russia and Mongolia. The authors note that the expansion of trade and economic relations with Russia is important for Mongolia for several reasons, including diversification of the public economy, prevention of unipolar orientation of foreign economic activity and the need to solve internal socio-economic problems. The article emphasizes Mongolia’s transit potential and its role in Russia-China relations.
The authors separately note that Mongolia faces economic development challenges, including low GDP and high unemployment. In this regard, the Mongolian government is implementing policies and programs aimed at economic development, employment and reducing unemployment and poverty.
The intensification of relations between the two countries in the context of Russian interests contributes to the expansion of functional geopolitical space, helps to overcome the artificial isolation constructed by the West, as well as increases the transit opportunities for Russia.
The article examines the state of relations between Mongolia and the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan). The author assesses main constraints of Mongolian-Central Asian economic cooperation, as well as steps to strengthen various elements of interstate partnership. Another part of the research is the study of Ulaanbaatar’s attempts to develop new theoretical approaches to the strengthen Mongolian policy in Central Asia in the context of the observed growth of global geopolitical and geo-economic tensions. It is obvious that in the current conditions Mongolia’s needs to expand the range of international partnerships becomes a serious challenge, requiring the authorities of the republic to make important political and foreign economic decisions in the short term.
The authors study the development of Belarusian-Russian integration processes in the conditions of sanctions pressure of Western states. The article considers the dynamics of the relationship between the states in the period from 2022 to 2023. In 2021, the program of Russia-Belarus integration was signed and 28 roadmaps within the Union State were approved. As part of the implementation of these programs, the countries have increased cooperation in various areas, including industry, finance, macroeconomics, transport and trade in goods. The article also addresses the issue of creating a single market for energy resources. It is noted that the first stage of creating a single market for electricity has already been achieved. However, the issue of a single gas market remains open.
ENERGY MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE
The energy sector has traditionally been the focus of the aspirations of various actors in the global foreign policy arena. In addition, in modern realities, the national economy, its current state and development prospects are closely related to the state of the country’s energy complex and its ability to ensure an appropriate level of energy security. Key energy issues, especially if they are of a cross-border nature, often acquire a powerful political component, and they themselves directly relate to the sphere of the most important national interests for any sovereign state. The author analyzed the process of reorientation of Russian energy exports to Asian and other markets and summarized the results of this process in 2022 and 2023. The paper analyzes the effects of the sanctions imposed against the Russian fuel and energy sector for our country, as well as for the states of the European Union, the United States and other initiators of such restrictions. The article also discusses the prospects for cooperation between Russia and the countries of the «non-Western» bloc in the field of energy in the medium term.