EDITORIAL
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS
The article looks into Türkiye’s new unofficial foreign policy ideology of the corridors, which complements the existing hub ideology from both theoretical and practical points of view. The key aim of the study is to examine the relationship between the ideological concepts of hub and corridor and ways of their application in the framework of Ankara’s energy, trade and economic policies. The idea of the hub is to assert Türkiye as a major logistics, energy, transport, trade, etc. center on a global scale. At the same time, this status is achieved through several integral and mutually complementary mechanisms: Turkish-centric integration and corridors with the help of which Türkiye brings itself closer to the goal. The types of corridors may vary depending on the kind of hub that Türkiye seeks to achieve: for example, economic, food, energy, transport or security hub. The ideology of corridors is most effective in the trade and economic sphere. That is why the Europe-China corridor remains the main route for modern Türkiye, which will allow it to reach another extra-regional level and fit itself into the «One Belt, One Road» project as one of its most important participants. In order to implement this strategy Türkiye builds mini-corridors – various projects that allow it to somehow connect simultaneously with Europe, Asia or its related territories: Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, Middle Corridor, TRACECA and others are among such projects. Nevertheless, Türkiye’s ambitious plans require a large amount of resources and finance that Ankara does not have. Türkiye’s further policy in this direction will depend on the actions of the ruling elite, relations with its partners and the position of other regional minihubs – primarily Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
The article examines Turkish approaches and strategy towards the countries of the Caspian region and Central Asia at a new stage of restructuring of Turkey’s foreign policy as part of the task of becoming a major regional and, in the future, global player. The focus of the study is on Ankara’s interest in infrastructure projects in the region and its energy resources, through which Turkey decides and seeks to further strengthen its energy security. Using its advantageous geostrategic position with access to the world ocean and transport connectivity with the EU, T rkiye is actively implementing a strategy of turning itself into an energy and transport hub of Eurasia in order to lock in the main flows of energy resources and goods.
FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA AND EXTERNAL RISKS
At the present stage, the production and export of LNG is one of the priority areas of the energy policy of the Russian Federation. Due to the evolving trend of rapid growth in the global LNG market, Russia’s competitiveness and leadership in the global gas market and the provision of opportunities for the country’s socio-economic development will largely depend on Russia’s ability to take a leading position in the field of LNG exports. The purpose of the article is to characterize the role and determine the place of China in the development of large-scale production and export of Russian LNG. The article assesses Russia’s position among the world’s largest LNG exporters, traces the development of large-scale LNG production in Russia and outlines the involvement of foreign partners in the implementation of Russian LNG projects. The article also assesses the contemporary energy strategy and natural gas supply of China as a country currently acting as a “premium” foreign partner of NOVATEK in the implementation of Russian large-tonnage LNG projects – Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2. The article concludes that China’s participation in Russian LNG projects is conditioned both by commercial interests, the desire to provide reliable channels for LNG imports, to promote the development of China’s production capacities and its entry into world markets in the production of special equipment for LNG and Arctic projects, and political considerations – the desire to raise the status of China as a large stakeholder in the Arctic and strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia, by strengthening their economic basis and adding a new dimension of cooperation.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
The history of relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States dates back more than 80 years. Initially, the interaction between Riyadh and Washington was based on the “oil for security” model, which justifies the relevance of studying the influence of the oil factor on the dynamics of US-Saudi relations. The article analyzes the main stages in the development of bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States in the 20th and early 21st centuries and at the present stage, taking into account internal and external factors, as well as in the context of regional and global processes. The process of formation and development of the oil sector of Saudi Arabia and Saudi Aramco (which has gone from an American concession to a leading national company) is studied from the point of view of the evolution of the kingdom’s foreign policy and the dynamics of relations with Washington. Particular attention is paid to the political and economic aspect, ideological and personal factors. Each of the ruling monarchs of the Al Saud dynasty adjusted the course of the kingdom’s development, according to a personal view of the country’s future, as well as based on the current interests of the ruling elites. Thus, radical changes occurred after the accession to the throne of the current king Salman ibn Abd al-Aziz in 2015, who appointed his beloved son Muhammad as crown prince. The prince headed the ambitious modernization project «Vision 2030», aimed not only at a number of significant reforms in socio-economic sphere, but also to rid Saudi Arabia of the “oil needle”, which had a strong impact on the state of relations between Riyadh and Washington. The author analyzes the current state of US-Saudi relations in the context of global transformations of the post-bipolar period and in the context of the Ukrainian crisis in 2022, since they have a direct impact not only on the regional processes of the Persian Gulf zone, the Middle East, but also on world energy markets.
GEOPOLITICS AND ENERGY SECURITY
As part of this research, the author studies the influence of the energy factor on the Russian project of an inclusive security architecture in the Middle East in the context of the transformation of the modern system of international relations. The article also outlines the importance of economic and political aspects in the implementation and maintenance of energy security at the regional and global levels. The author considers two cases of the Middle East energy agenda: hydrocarbon, related to issues of oil production and pricing on the world market, and nuclear, associated both with the construction of nuclear power plants by Russia in the countries of the region, as well as the situation around the Iranian nuclear deal, taking into account possible risks of escalation. The makes a conclusion about the unique situation that has developed in the Middle East, in which the United States does not have absolute influence on the processes in the energy sector. And if Moscow takes advantage of the situation, then using the proven capabilities of an inclusive security architecture it will be possible to create a long-term flexible and at the same time effective system of multi-vector security in the Middle East.
The article examines the main trends in the global energy sector as the global geopolitical and geo-economic turbulence increases. The author assesses the prospects of the Central Asian states and their oil and gas resources in changing conditions since the beginning of this year. At the same time, this complex of significant and large-scale issues is analyzed from the point of view of the national interests of the Russian Federation. This option was chosen due to the key nature of the fuel and energy complex of Russia in the post-soviet space, which plays a leading role for Central Asian economies, foreign economic activity of the countries of the region. A separate topic of consideration is the transit and logistics potential of the territory of Central Asia, from the point of view of the recently discussed possibilities of transformation of the region’s raw material flows to world (primarily European) markets. The article also considers the main measures to support the economy of the Russian Federation in the face of unprecedented sanctions pressure and prospects for countering sanctions imposed unilaterally by Western countries in the energy sector.
ENERGY POLICY
The article examines the energy situation in Moldova, which has changed with the beginning of Russian special operation in Ukraine. Moldova is formally observing neutrality, but in its public rhetoric and individual actions sided with Ukraine. Despite the fact that Chisinau did not fulfill a number of provisions of the contract concluded in October 2021 with Gazprom, the latter continued to supply gas to Moldova for various reasons, humanitarian among them. Another important reason is the need to ensure the energy security of Pridnestrov`e, which is closely connected with Moldova by energy routes. Despite Moldova’s dependence on Russian gas, Chisinau, demonstrating its commitment to Euro-Atlantic “solidarity”, continues to search for alternative energy sources. These include joining the European gas platform, purchasing reserve gas for storage in gas storage facilities, etc.
These are all stopgap measures and will not be able to ensure energy security, especially in the autumn-winter period. The article also analyzes the main trends in the development of the energy situation in Moldova in the conditions of a high degree of uncertainty prevailing in the regional and global gas markets.
A review of the Armenian oil products market at the present stage is carried out. The structure and main indicators of the market are presented. The dynamics of imports of gasoline and diesel fuel to Armenia is considered. The dynamics of the increase in the number of players in the Armenian oil products market for 2017–2021 is shown. The share of individual companies in the market was determined. The geography of import of oil products to Armenia is studied. The share of Russian, Iranian, Bulgarian, Turkmen and other oil products in the domestic market is determined. Attempts to diversify the market are studied. In particular, the issues of entering the Armenian market of Petrocas in the context of implementing the strategy of the state corporation Rosneft are considered. Special attention is paid to the possibility of entry into the Armenian market of the British-Dutch company Shell. In this regard, an assessment is made of the discourse that has spread in Armenia about the possibility of Azerbaijani oil products entering the Armenian market through these companies. The prospects for the implementation of the agreement between Armenia and Kazakhstan on cooperation in the field of supply of petroleum products are considered. The issues of pricing policy in the oil products market of Armenia are studied, a comparison is made with prices in the countries of the post-Soviet space.
ECOLOGY AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES
In modern conditions of socio-economic, political-legal and administrativeeconomic development, as well as the geopolitical position of Russia, National Technology Initiative (NTI) can act as a tool for modernization and digitalization of the national economy of Russia as part of industrial policy and regional development. The high priority of the task of systematic implementation of the import substitution strategy determines the relevance of efficient use of all available mechanisms, including NTI. The initiative presumes that innovative ideas that are born and implemented with the help of NTI projects will have large-scale positive effects on the development of Russia in the near future. Such effects include: the leading positions of domestic companies in the new world markets, improvements for the quality of life of the country’s population, digital reindustrialization of the Russian economy, increase of the number of innovative products in the country’s exports, etc. The development of NTI requires new, innovative approaches in the organizational, managerial, economic, social, law enforcement and other spheres of public life. The authors analyze the tools and mechanisms of industrial policy aimed at stimulating innovative activity in the regions, and also consider the role and place of NTI in Russian industrial policy and as a solution for spatial development problems.