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Geoeconomics of Energetics

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No 1 (2022)
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CURRENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

6-33 103
Abstract

The article presents opinions of leading experts on the situation in the world energy markets emerging in the context of comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia. Experts have assessed the geopolitical, economic and logistical factors in the new system of discriminatory sanctions against Russian energy companies, as well as outlined the negative effects of their impact on global energy markets and the Russian energy sector.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS

34-46 99
Abstract

The article describes the changes in the oil and gas markets during the coronavirus pandemic, discusses their current state and development prospects. The changes in the oil and gas markets after the pandemic are analyzed. The influence of the introduced restrictions on the world demand for oil and oil products is analyzed. The consequences of the imposed movement restrictions are analyzed. The impact of the pandemic on the air transportation market and the jet fuel market is described. The issues of decarbonization of energy markets and the consequences of the energy transition are considered. The issues of achieving carbon neutrality are considered within the framework of the European region and the taken measures to reduce the level of carbon dioxide emissions. Particular attention is paid to the European gas market. An analysis was made of both pipeline gas and the LNG market. The main routes of gas supplies to the region are described. Scenarios for the development of the European gas market are described. The geopolitical aspects of the development of the European gas market and its connection with Russia are considered. The current state of the European oil market is described. The influence of the European policy on decarbonization and achieving carbon neutrality on the Russian energy market is considered. The prospects for the development of the Russian energy industry are analyzed. Scenarios for the development of the Russian oil and gas market, as well as the potential for the use of renewable energy sources in the country, are described. The potential for the use of solar and wind energy in Russia, as well as the development of hydrogen energy, is considered.

47-60 71
Abstract

The article examines the trends in oil prices from the point of view of the functioning of adjacent financial markets. The main purpose of the study is to identify direct and inverse relationships between the processes of oil pricing in financial markets and the formation of sources of financing for operations in the capital market. The global financial market centered in the United States was chosen as the object of research. The subject of the research is financial and economic relations arising in the process of pricing in the oil market during the integration of this market into the global finance system. The hypothesis of the study was that oil prices are determined not so much by the ratio of supply and demand for physical oil, as by changes in adjacent financial markets.

To achieve the goal and confirm or refute the hypothesis, multiple regression analysis was carried out, which made it possible to confirm the presence of a strong relationship between oil prices and the dynamics of the stock market, money market and commodity market. The mechanism for the transmission of price impulses is seen in the process of liquidity management and in the mechanisms for funding capital transactions at the expense of money market instruments. Since petrodollars are one of the sources of liquidity in the European market, liquidity is provided by balancing oil prices and rates in this market. Further, the impulse is transmitted to the capital market, and from it – to the commodity markets. Thus, the mechanism of financial intermediation between market segments determines the systems of complex relationships in the formation of oil prices. The practical conclusion from the analysis should be that the analysis of supply and demand in the physical oil markets without taking into account the financial characteristics of the modern concentrated capital market and sources of liquidity on it will not allow avoiding serious errors in forecast estimates.

EURASIAN INTEGRATION AND COMMON MARKETS

61-79 50
Abstract

The independent development of the Republic of Tajikistan in modern times began its countdown in 1991. The thirty-year path was associated with the need for public administration reforms, the formation of market mechanisms, and the search for new foreign policy partners. The article analyzes the problems that the republic faced on the way to building an independent state. They touched on all aspects of the socio-economic life of the republic, from the negative impact of the Tajik conflict to the impact of global crises. The article discusses the role of the existing sectoral structure of the economy, the impact of foreign investment on infrastructure projects. The author shows which factors have most influenced the economic and political state of the country for thirty years.

ENERGY POLICY

80-96 81
Abstract

The article discusses the causes of the gas crisis in Moldova and the peculiarities of its course. It is emphasized that the gas crisis has not only economic reasons related to Moldova’s high energy dependence and Gazprom’s desire to make super profits due to favorable conditions in the global gas market. The crisis demonstrated that the pro-Western Moldovan leadership, once again, neglected the economic interests of their country for the sake of geopolitical considerations. This situation has become possible due to the fact that Moldova is now, to a large extent, under external control. The article analyzes the specifics of the negotiation process regarding the terms of the renegotiation of the gas contract, the positions of the management of Gazprom and Moldovagaz. The unconstructive nature of the Moldovan leadership’s claims for substantial discounts on Russian gas supplies is emphasized.

As a result, the formula for purchasing Russian gas for Moldova turned out to be tied to the prices of oil basket goods and market prices for gas, which led to a significant increase in its cost. This circumstance led to a sharp increase in gas prices and an increase in tariffs for end consumers in Moldova, which led to an increase in the price of essential products, including fuel. The rapid decline in the living standards of the Moldovan population has led to an increase in social tension and the intensification of the protest movement. At the same time, judging by recent events, the Moldovan leadership has not learned the necessary lessons from the situation. The next trigger that can cause a new round in the gas crisis in Moldova may be a conflict caused by the different approaches of the contracting parties to the audit procedure of Moldovagaz and, accordingly, to determining the size of Moldova’s gas debt.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SYSTEMS

97-131 78
Abstract

The article provides a detailed analysis of the consequences of changes in oil and gas prices and the suspension of the functioning of the Eurasian migration system on the standard of living of the population in the countries of the post-Soviet space, with the exception of the Baltic countries.

The authors of the article substantiate the following point of view: during the pandemic, import-dependent post-Soviet countries were not able to take full advantage of the lower oil prices, since negative processes in their own economic systems intensified - devaluation of national currencies against the dollar, rising prices for goods and services, reduction in the volume of labor migrants remittances. As a result of the combination of these factors, the well-being of the population in labor donor countries, especially its low-income strata, has deteriorated significantly.

Under these conditions, Russian oil and gas policy aimed to reduce and curb the growth of energy prices during this period, as well as the transfers of migrants who remained to work in Russia, provided serious support to the economies of the studied republics and made it possible to limit the development of negative socio-economic trends in the CIS countries.

ECOLOGY AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES

132-155 87
Abstract

The paper considers Russia’s goal and approach to participating in the creation of electro-hydrogen infrastructure of a new energy market in the Northeast Asian region – the hydrogen carriers market. Technologically advanced East Asian economies have set the course towards accelerated development of hydrogen technologies, which are expected to be one of the key factors of low-carbon energy development. However, due to the geographical constraints and scale of energy consumption, the attempt to lower the dependence on exporters of hydrocarbons, coal, and nuclear fuels, may lead to the dependence on green energy exporters.

To estimate the scope and preconditions to create new energy markets in North-east Asia, emerging with hydrogen technologies commercialization, the authors have developed a methodological approach based on a combination of modelling tools with international energy cooperation institutions analysis. Green liquefied hydrogen production costs were estimated for locations in Mongolia and Japan; a scenario of international power infrastructure availability in Northeast Asia was considered.

The recommendations for Russia on promising options of participating in the creation of electric-hydrogen infrastructure of new regional hydrogen carrier and technologies markets were proposed. The technical, economic, institutional, and political conditions for electro-hydrogen infrastructure creation in Northeast Asia under the global paradigm of transition to low-carbon energy, increasing share of renewable energy sources in the primary energy consumption, and, finally, restructuring Northeast Asia economies on a new technological basis are listed. The conclusions are in line with the Concept for the Development of Hydrogen Energy in Russia and complement it with the directions for creating new international energy markets.



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ISSN 2687-0703 (Print)